What is the probability that a turbine satisfies the performance requirement?Ĭontacting the manufacturer of the sonic scanner, you find that actually they are not so sure about this 20% failure rate: it is based on a study where 4 of 5 fractures were detected. The inspection method is not foolproof: it has a 20% chance of failing to detect a fracture that is there. You test 18 turbines for the required period T, and perform an inspection of the blades using a sonic scanner. And this tool that were going to introduce today is called Crystal Ball. One of the key performance characteristics is that the turbine blades do not, with high probability, develop micro-fractures beyond size X within an operation period T. This guide describes how to convert a static Excel spreadsheet model into a Monte Carlo simulation, and the kind of information you can learn from the. For what were going to call Monte Carlo simulation. Your company manufactures gas turbines for power stations. What is the probability that this total market is more than 55 refineries? The total market size for your new technology (Y) is therefore any refinery that currently doesn't meet EPA requirements plus any refinery that used technology X. You are convinced that a refinery that used technology X is as likely to buy your new technology (if you develop it) as a refinery that doesn't use any technology yet. Both of these can be used as add-ins for spreadsheets and allow random sampling to be. the power of Monte Carlo simulation, time-series forecasting, analysis tools. Recently, a competing technology was brought in the market (technology X) that also helps refineries meet these emissions and quite a few refineries are already using this technology (before start of EPA requirements), but it is a lot more expensive. The two most common tools for designing and executing Monte Carlo models are Risk and Crystal Ball. Oracles Crystal Ball Application Suite is the complete spreadsheet-based. However, you only want to develop this technology further if there are at least 55 refineries in the US that could benefit from your technology. You are an R&D company, that is planning to commercialize a new technology for oil refineries to help them meet a new EPA NOx emission requirements that will come into effect 1 year from now.
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